Supply risk hedges off-season pressure, SHFE tin fluctuates slightly lower [SMM tin midday review]

SHFE tin fluctuates upward, while LME tin stabilizes and rebounds - Daily tin market review on July 11, 2025

​​The most-traded SHFE tin contract: closes higher amid ongoing tug-of-war between sellers and buyers​​

​​Today's trend​​: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened at 267,400 yuan/mt, up 2,400 yuan from the previous day. It fluctuated at highs during the session and then fluctuated downward towards the close, eventually closing at 264,480 yuan/mt, down 0.20%.

​​Driving factors​​: Domestic steady growth policies drive a simultaneous increase in consumption and investment, boosting sentiment in the commodity market. However, dovish remarks from US Fed officials (Daly suggesting two interest rate cuts this year) alleviate pressure on the US dollar, supporting tin prices.

​​Weak demand​​: Traditional electronics and automotive electronics sectors enter the off-season, with sluggish order growth. Although PV welding strips are boosted by the "anti-cut-throat competition" policy, it is difficult to offset the overall decline in demand.

The spot market sees sluggish transactions, with downstream buyers making just-in-time procurement. The premium structure loosens (Yunnan Tin premium at 800-1,200 yuan/mt).

​​The main LME tin contract closed at $33,430/mt, down 0.06%. Driving factors​​: US Fed Governor Waller supports a July interest rate cut, causing the US dollar index to drop back slightly. Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on copper sparks expectations of supply chain disruptions, indirectly boosting the non-ferrous metals sector.

​​Short-term (1 week)​​: SHFE tin is expected to fluctuate rangebound within 260,000-270,000 yuan/mt. Tight supply supports the bottom, but off-season inventory buildup and macroeconomic fluctuations constrain breakthrough momentum.

​​LME tin​​: Expected to trade within 33,000-34,000 US dollars/mt. Low inventory and expectations of interest rate cuts support prices, but the risk of escalating geopolitical conflicts needs to be monitored.